Predicted Global Coronavirus Disease-19 Infection and Mortality in 2020

The first figure is a predicted logistic growth curve for Coronavirus infection. According to the growth curve, the virus might be under control around summer and the predicted overall infection might be close to 534,444 and the predicted mortality is around 18000 in 2020 which is a case-fatality rate of about 3.4%. It might vary from this based on factors affecting its transmission such as the global control efforts including travel restriction, quarantine, isolation of infected persons, awareness and personal protection, and potential discovery of vaccine.

There is no need for panic, about this virus infection compared to other conditions that result in death or compared to other similar outbreaks in the past. Honestly, the regular flu results in more infections and deaths but since flu has vaccination, we do not panic about it that much.

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